抽签问题

  Subjective crime is the "Penal Code" provisions of the various crime elements essential to the Elements for the stipulations of the Criminal Law of these criminal acts and people only subjective and intentionally or involuntarily, under certain circumstances also requested has a definite purpose, in order to qualify, can afford such corresponding criminal responsibility, on these offenses, if the act did not Penal Code corresponding in dangerous drugs provisions deliberately or fault or purpose, he does not constitute a crime, a crime subjective aspects including willfully negligence, motives and objectives elements, therefore, finds The perpetrator subjective aspects that the elements of criminal proceedings will have very important significance to the criminal defendants subjective aspects various elements of the finds, with the endangering the facts (a guilty verdict previously inappropriate to claimed "the facts of his crime" finds the same are criminal proceedings to solve the problems, its purpose is to determine whether a defendant constitutes a crime。

   But compared to the subjective elements of the crime of criminal defendants found to be complicated against the confirmation of the facts, the defendant guilty or purpose or motive came from his heart。

   However, in the normal criminal procedure, the judge at the defendant guilty, and identify the purpose or motive appears too hasty in these circumstances have inevitably lead to imprisonment。

如果“前面,后面”指抽签过程的前后,知道结果,且结果是没有中,那么后面的人中奖的概率在上升,但是结果是中奖了,那么后面的概率就是0了,所以“知道结果”是以“概率变为0”来交换的,所以这是公平的。

如果是中奖结果上的时间差,就是心理信心的作用,其实概率并没有上升,这也是公平的。

  概率是随机事件发生可能性大小的度量,我们说概率,总是在试验结果还没有出来的时候,如果试验已经结束,结果已经出来,那么这时候再说概率就毫无意义了,因为此时这件事要么发生,要么没有发生。

概率是多少,还与你在什么时候说是有关系的。举一个简单的例子:

一口袋里有2只红球、3只白球,甲、乙两人依次从袋里摸一球,求各人摸到红球的概率。

分别以A、B记甲、乙两人摸到红球,A~、B~分别表示摸到白球,则

P(A)=2/5

P(B)=P(A)P(B|A)+P(A~)P(B|A~)=2/5*1/4+3/5*2/4=1/10+3/10=2/5

两人摸到红球的概率是相等的,这个概率是在第一个人还没有摸的时候讲的;所谓“在不知道前面的人是否抽中签的情况下”也就是指第一个人还没有抽取的时候。

如果“后抽的人知道前面人抽签的结果”,即在已知甲摸到了什么球的条件下,再来说乙摸到红球的概率,这时候实际上是条件概率的问题:

已知甲摸到红球,则乙摸到红球的概率P(B|A)=1/4

已知甲摸到白球,则乙摸到红球的概率P(B|A~)=2/4=1/2。

一样的

按自然科学计算

多抽分类 求平均植

但现实中 我还是觉得运气问题

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